Deglobalization is Unstoppable Now

Plus: how to join The Missive Book Club's monthly discussion

I don’t know about you, but I’m glad that a) we read The End of the World is Just Beginning by Peter Zeihan and b) that I gave us an extra week to finish. I can’t remember the last time I highlighted so much of a book!

Literally every page is marked up with important data and insights. I hope it has been equally revealing for you. And if you haven’t already, upgrade to a paid account to join our live monthly book club discussions on Zoom.

Tomorrow (Thursday, Feb 9th) we will be discussing The End of the World is Just Beginning. Even if you haven’t read the book I want to invite you to join us for a lively discussion of current events. So I’ve curated a few articles from the news to show how news of deglobalization is everywhere if you know where to look.

For those who need the TL;DR version of the book here you go:

The era of globalization founded by the US after WWII is breaking down as a) the US is no longer interested in maintaining world peace (specifically the safe-passage of ships on the world’s shipping lanes) b) the entire system of globalization depends on safe (and therefore cheap) shipping of goods, c) populations around the world are about to collapse as deaths begin to outstrip births, d) this will mean that we soon won’t have enough workers to make things - or consumers to buy things and so therefore e) the era of relative peace, prosperity and ease of travel will collapse as nations go back to looking out for their own interests in a world of increasingly scarce resources.

Don’t believe me? Browse the following articles to see how this is all over the news already. We just need to connect the dots to see where it’s all going.

Wanna talk more about this? Upgrade your account to join the live discussion this Thursday. Zoom details below the paywall below.

Tracking the Collapse of Globalization:

• China made news this month for reaching what many see as terminal population decline, which our book predicts will lead to the collapse of the country - and all of East Asia’s export-led economy. It was all over the NYT this week, as economist Paul Krugman breaks down the problem with population decline, columnist Bret Stephens suggests a US response, sociologist Dr. Wang Feng argues the case for optimism, and Ross Douthat suggests a moral framework for an aging world.

• Europe’s aging crisis is less surprising but Monocle’s The Globalist podcast discussed the impact of the so-called “Silver Tsunami” of aging in Italy. No wonder there are so many 1€ houses for sale in Italy… And as millennials start aging into their homebuying years, I’m wondering if a population bust coupled with remote work will make this a viable option.

• Mexico is going win big from the breakdown of globalization, according to Peter Zeihan. We are already seeing Chinese companies moving production to Northern Mexico to circumvent shipping costs and secure access to the US market. This Texas-Mexico manufacturing corridor could become the center of North American production. Speaking of property, it be a good time to buy property in cheap, colonial cities in the north - San Luis Potosti, Queretaro, and Zacatecas could see a comeback in the decades to come.

• East Asia - Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in defiance of the US-led World Order has stoked fears that China could try something similar in Taiwan. The US is now asserting itself militarily to protect both Taiwan and the all-important shipping lanes of East Asia. The US has just announced that it will deploy “surge forces” to the Philippines as well as missile-armed Marines to Okinawa as both Korea and Japan announce massive new defense spending. Meanwhile, China’s mad dash to the strategic Solomon Islands is breeding resentment among locals.

• USA - Tyler Cowen writes in Bloomberg that deglobalization is the new globalization and how national industrial policy is back. Some even call it “the designer economy.” Professor Robert Reich argues that President Biden has revived democratic capitalism, which is perhaps nowhere more visible than the battle over semiconductors and US efforts to bring production back to North America.

• Congo - Meanwhile, our race towards green energy has revived a modern scramble for Africa as developed economies attempt to source rare-earth minerals like cobalt from politically unstable places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Pope Francis recently visited Congo and called on companies and nations to stop exploiting Africa’s people and resources and NPR’s Fresh Air reports on how “Modern-Day Slavery” powers the rechargeable battery economy.

• Davos was apparently a different vibe this year. Deglobalization was ironically the key topic at perhaps the most pro-globalization forum on the planet. Other topics included the war in Ukraine, climate change and energy security. Many openly questioned whether we are at the end of an era.

But perhaps no one can sum it up as well as the author of this month’s book himself - Peter Zeihan. Turns out homie has a rippin’ little YouTube channel with multiple vlogs a week breaking down how the news relates to geopolitics.

Check out this video, some of the above articles, and come on Thursday ready to discuss where the world is going in the 2020s and beyond.

Until next time,

Marko

Zoom Details

Topic: The End of the World is Just Beginning by Peter Zeihan

Date: Thursday February 9th

Time: 3PM LA // 5PM CDMX // 6PM NYC